Qaddafi tries to buy time

The AP headline is "Libya offers cease-fire after UN no-fly zone vote", but as the lede makes clear, Qaddafi's words may not be matching his actions:

Libya declared an immediate cease-fire Friday, trying to fend off international military intervention after the U.N. authorized a no-fly zone and "all necessary measures" to prevent the regime from striking its own people. A rebel spokesman said Moammar Gadhafi's forces were still shelling two cities.

I'm sure the rebel spokesman is telling the truth, because it makes no sense for Qaddafi to have stopped ground action.

The no-fly zone resolution would not allow the U.S. or anyone else to undertake serious offensive action against Libyan military forces. Qaddafi's army has more than enough force at its disposal to overwhelm the rebels solely using ground troops and armor. Absent aircraft (which are, admittedly, important for more than their firepower: they're often critical for reconaissance) actually being in the air, what can the rest of the world actually do against the Libyan military if no one is willing to declare war?

The only reason for Qaddafi to feel uneasy is if he suspects the Arab League is ready to intervene. I don't know if that's the case, although I don't see why it would: it would rather badly undermine the moral authority of the remaining autocratic governments in the League itself. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Syria and Iran couldn't be too happy about that prospect.

A cease-fire, even if Qaddafi honored it, wouldn't be much help at this point. Unlike other recent autocrats, he apparently has decided he has no viable exit strategy, so he's going to hold onto power until he's dead. That being the case, it's impossible to imagine he will agree to share power with anyone else, and certainly not the Libyan rebels: he would be as good as cutting his own throat. Whether he can hoodwink anyone else into believing he can be trusted to share power is a different question, though. That's where I think this cease-fire gambit is leading: to a cooling-off period for the rest of the world. If outsiders' attention can be taken away from Libya, perhaps he can quietly consolidate his power again. That possibility has to be scaring every Libyan who isn't part of the military or in Qaddafi's inner circle.