Ed Yong clarifies where the U.S. is in the pandemic

The Atlantic's Ed Yong is credited as "a staff writer" who "covers science". That doesn't do him justice. He's really an acute, clear-eyed observer of not just science but the American political response to the natural world — particularly to CoViD-19.

In a quickie newsletter, he cuts through much of the fog of reporting surrounding the Delta variant. The result is a sober explanation of a few bottom-line facts:

• "Vaccinated people are not fully safe ... but they're much safer than unvaccinated people."
• "Breakthrough infections are relatively rare ... but won't feel rare."
• "Vaccinated people are unlikely to transmit Delta as easily as unvaccinated people ... but they can probably still spread it."
• "We are not back to square one ... but we're not out of the woods."

If you're dissatisfied with the foregoing — if you crave facts that don't leave so much room for interpretation — sorry. That's not how things are.

In a quietly devastating analysis last fall of why the U.S. response to CoViD-19 was so appallingly bad, Yong observed (among many other things) that we have a habit of assuming we can invent our way out of crises. That leads us to seek out, and to expect, magical technological fixes.

My instinct is to call such an expectation simplistic and foolish. However, that's too harsh. Looking for magic bullets bespeaks an optimism that is part of the national character, an optimism that even I must admit is crucial not just for the nation, but for humanity at large.

That said, we often let that optimism blind us to the need to take crucial action before any magic bullets are found. If you don't yet have a cure for zombieism, you'd better do what you can to avoid being turned into one. And you can't rely on just one defense: you have to have multiple layers of defenses, because those zombies will probably overwhelm or circumvent any single obstacle.

Vaccination is not a magic bullet for CoViD-19. It's a key defensive layer, though, just in case you become infected. To minimize the chance of becoming infected, you wear a mask (or masks), stay away from crowds if possible, wash your hands before touching your eyes, etc. — all the things you're tired of hearing about but that remain best practices no matter what you think. Taking all these steps gives defense in depth, which is the best you can hope for in the real world.

So that's where we are. It's neither as great as vaccine proponents hoped nor as dire as some fearmongering pundits think. The world isn't black and white: it's full of grays.

(The 5 August 2021 newsletter is a good summary of where we are, but if you want to know how we botched things as a country so badly, you must read the long piece from last year. He identifies multiple flaws in the national character that will cause us more suffering if we don't recognize and correct them.)