The deficit in chart form

James Fallows in The Atlantic headlined his piece, "The Chart That Should Accompany Every Discussion of Deficits,", and indeed, that chart would cut through a lot of nonsense coming from unrepentant trickle-down proponents. The chart elegantly captures the amount of the U.S. deficit projected from 2009-2019, in trillions of dollars, due to each of five factors:

• the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq
• the George W. Bush tax cuts
• the recovery measures
• the costs associated with TARP and bailing out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
• the economic downturn

The economic downturn is a large and persistent factor, as you'd expect. The TARP and Fannie/Freddie costs were significant in the last couple of years but practically vanish going forward; the recovery measures, too, loom large in the shorter term (until 2013) but drop to a relatively small amount after that.

The cost of the wars is a persistent burden over the decade, like a layer of fat over everything else, accounting for hundreds of billions in spending every year.

However, by far the biggest contributor to the deficit over the decade are the Bush tax cuts. Right now their impact rivals that attributed to the economic downturn; by 2014 they outstrip the downturn's effects, until by 2019 they dwarf the latter.

I have never been tempted to include a graphic in this blog -- until now. However, by way of compensation, let me point you to the source for this chart, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities article "Economic Downturn and Bush Policies Continue to Drive Large Projected Deficits." The CBPP article provides important context for the chart.