These are not maps of where inundation has occurred, but maps projecting where inundation likely will occur. The maps were a joint project of the California Emergency Management Agency, the California Geological Survey and the University of Southern California.
It appears that the assumptions underlying the maps are described in a paper written by Richard K. Eisner, Jose C. Borrero, and Costas E. Synolakis in 2001. One assumption to note is that for simplicity's sake, the maps represent the worst-case scenarios envisioned by the authors.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Eroding North Korea's isolation
Courtesy of Longreads, a link to a lengthy piece in The Atlantic by Robert S. Boynton about the handful of dedicated souls communicating with North Koreans in defiance of Kim Jong-Il's repressive government.
Articles about North Korea generally hook me these days because it is such a bizarre specimen of a nation. Its insularity is remarkable; its government's success at indoctrinating its people while keeping them ignorant of the rest of the world is almost unbelievable.
The threat to the North Korean government arises not just from these new media organizations. Ordinary North Koreans are gaining access to technologies that let them obtain information in a variety of ways, complicating the government's job of suppression.
Articles about North Korea generally hook me these days because it is such a bizarre specimen of a nation. Its insularity is remarkable; its government's success at indoctrinating its people while keeping them ignorant of the rest of the world is almost unbelievable.
Given this isolation, it’s even more remarkable that since 2004, a half-dozen independent media organizations have been launched in Northeast Asia to communicate with North Koreans—to bring news out of the country as well as to get potentially destabilizing information in. ... And as with all intelligence-gathering projects, their most valuable assets are human: a network of reporters in North Korea and China who dispatch a stream of reports, whether about the palace intrigue surrounding the choice of Kim Jong Il’s successor, or the price of flour in Wŏnsan.Amazing.
... [T]hese new media organizations are helping to create something remarkable: a corps of North Korean citizen-journalists practicing real journalism inside the country.
The threat to the North Korean government arises not just from these new media organizations. Ordinary North Koreans are gaining access to technologies that let them obtain information in a variety of ways, complicating the government's job of suppression.
Across the border, as the Chinese got richer, they were trading in their Walkmans and cheap computers for iPods and computers with larger hard drives and DVD burners. And what do a billion Chinese do with their old stuff? Sell it to their poor neighbors. (A 2009 survey found that 58 percent of North Koreans had regular access to a cassette recorder with radio, and 21 percent watched videos on video-compact-disc players.)It's dangerous for the news gatherers and news consumers alike, but these developments are probably the best chance North Korea has of rejoining the human race.
Friday, March 11, 2011
GOP wants to cut funding for NOAA
In the ironic-timing department, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives approved some $454 million in cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Of those cuts, $126 million would be taken from the budget of the National Weather Service, whose Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued the tsunami warnings that undoubtedly saved lives on Hawaii and the mainland.
Only a handful of people know what the real impact of the cuts would be; the rest of us only have the predictable warnings of doom from Democrats and the equally predictable assurances from Republicans that the cuts will not affect people's safety but are absolutely essential to reducing the deficit. Neither party can claim such a close relationship to the truth that its statements can be considered trustworthy.
We'll never know if the warning system that kept so many alive today would have been just as effective with a smaller budget. The problem is that deficit hawks will not step forward to say unambiguously, "Services X, Y, and Z aren't worth paying for, so we're stripping funding for them." Well, that's not entirely true: conservatives have no difficulty being quite upfront about their determination to de-fund public broadcasting and Planned Parenthood. However, that's as far as they'll go in their straight-talking.
Deficit hawks, if you want to show you're credible, you'll cut funding for programs your constituents like, too. And you'll explain to everyone why it's necessary. Otherwise you're just playing the same petty politics in which you accuse your so-called big-government foes of indulging.
Only a handful of people know what the real impact of the cuts would be; the rest of us only have the predictable warnings of doom from Democrats and the equally predictable assurances from Republicans that the cuts will not affect people's safety but are absolutely essential to reducing the deficit. Neither party can claim such a close relationship to the truth that its statements can be considered trustworthy.
We'll never know if the warning system that kept so many alive today would have been just as effective with a smaller budget. The problem is that deficit hawks will not step forward to say unambiguously, "Services X, Y, and Z aren't worth paying for, so we're stripping funding for them." Well, that's not entirely true: conservatives have no difficulty being quite upfront about their determination to de-fund public broadcasting and Planned Parenthood. However, that's as far as they'll go in their straight-talking.
Deficit hawks, if you want to show you're credible, you'll cut funding for programs your constituents like, too. And you'll explain to everyone why it's necessary. Otherwise you're just playing the same petty politics in which you accuse your so-called big-government foes of indulging.
Preliminary tsunami damage not too bad
... in California, that is.
According to KCBS/KPIX, the local CBS radio and TV affiliates, most of the damage has occurred in harbors, specifically, those in Crescent City (which bore the brunt of the largest tsunami in recent U.S. history back in 1964) and Santa Cruz.
As for San Francisco:
Well ...
There have been aftershocks to the Honshu quake that measured magnitude 7 or better. A magnitude 7 quake is worthy of being considered a major quake on its own. A professional pessimist, as I am some days, would reflect that it's at least possible the massive 8.9 that triggered the current tsunami is itself merely a precursor to an even larger quake. That, of course, could spawn an even larger tsunami.
(I don't mean to ignore the tremendous destruction and loss of life that the quakes that have already occurred have visited on Japan. I'm just not equipped to disseminate information about Japan's plight. However, I do have a pretty good perspective on the impact of any tsunami on California, so I'm playing to my limited strengths.)
According to KCBS/KPIX, the local CBS radio and TV affiliates, most of the damage has occurred in harbors, specifically, those in Crescent City (which bore the brunt of the largest tsunami in recent U.S. history back in 1964) and Santa Cruz.
As for San Francisco:
The bluffs above San Francisco’s Ocean Beach were dotted with spectators who couldn’t resist seeing the effects of the tsunami for themselves.So we Californians can breathe a sigh of relief, right?
The sun was shining, the air was warm, and the waves seemed no more dramatic than most days, several Sunset District residents said.
Well ...
There have been aftershocks to the Honshu quake that measured magnitude 7 or better. A magnitude 7 quake is worthy of being considered a major quake on its own. A professional pessimist, as I am some days, would reflect that it's at least possible the massive 8.9 that triggered the current tsunami is itself merely a precursor to an even larger quake. That, of course, could spawn an even larger tsunami.
(I don't mean to ignore the tremendous destruction and loss of life that the quakes that have already occurred have visited on Japan. I'm just not equipped to disseminate information about Japan's plight. However, I do have a pretty good perspective on the impact of any tsunami on California, so I'm playing to my limited strengths.)
Still waiting for the tsunami
Tsunami warning still in effect for northern and central California (and Oregon, and parts of Alaska) due to the 8.9 magnitude earthquake off the coast of the Japanese island of Honshu.
So far there's no mandatory evacuation for my area. Highway 17 in the South Bay is clogged, though, as people evacuate low-lying areas of Santa Cruz; Highway 92 out of Half Moon Bay is jammed for the same reason. Ocean Beach, China Beach and the Great Highway in San Francisco are closed. Were the Cliff House open, it would be a spectacular place from which to watch whatever happens. (It's closed because it's too early, not because it has been evacuated: the building is on a cliff fifty feet or more off the beach.)
This isn't directly related, but I can't resist a bemused comment about President Obama's official statement of condolence to Japan on the horrific earthquake that spawned the tsunami. Obama called the ties between the U.S. and Japan "unshakeable." Uh, Mr. President, don't you have advisors who vet your official statements? Didn't anyone in the White House recognize how unfortunate it was to use that word in connection with an earthquoke? You don't get points for wordplay in a statement of condolence.
So far there's no mandatory evacuation for my area. Highway 17 in the South Bay is clogged, though, as people evacuate low-lying areas of Santa Cruz; Highway 92 out of Half Moon Bay is jammed for the same reason. Ocean Beach, China Beach and the Great Highway in San Francisco are closed. Were the Cliff House open, it would be a spectacular place from which to watch whatever happens. (It's closed because it's too early, not because it has been evacuated: the building is on a cliff fifty feet or more off the beach.)
This isn't directly related, but I can't resist a bemused comment about President Obama's official statement of condolence to Japan on the horrific earthquake that spawned the tsunami. Obama called the ties between the U.S. and Japan "unshakeable." Uh, Mr. President, don't you have advisors who vet your official statements? Didn't anyone in the White House recognize how unfortunate it was to use that word in connection with an earthquoke? You don't get points for wordplay in a statement of condolence.
Tsunami warning for U.S. west coast
The magnitude 8.9 earthquake off the east coast of Honshu, Japan has triggered a tsunami warning for the coastal areas of California north of Point Concepcion north to the border between Oregon and Washington. Hawaii is due to be hit first; at this point, I believe it's supposed to happen at around 3 AM Hawaii (5 AM PST). The tsunami will reach San Francisco Bay at 8:07 AM PST.
Tsunamis are generated when large earthquakes send shock waves through ocean waters. Those shock waves travel at some 500 MPH in deep water, but are barely noticeable in mid-ocean. The trouble occurs when the shocked water approaches gradually shallower coastlines: waves slow down, allowing following waves to catch up with them. This produces new waves of greater height. When those larger, slower waves actually reach shore they may only be traveling in the tens of MPH, but the amount of water makes those slower waves push farther onto land than usual. Moreover, tsunamis are a series of those larger, slower waves.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has four levels of message it issues, ranging from information, the lowest, to warning, the highest. The warning issued to northern and central California and Oregon (and parts of Alaska) signifies "inundating wave possible." (A lower-level advisory is in place for the rest of California.)
The trouble is, the actual damage from a tsunami depends on how high the waves are when they hit shore. Tsunami height is not nearly as easy to forecast as tsunami propagation speed, and the best indicator, unfortunately, is its impact on other areas. As such, mainlanders will be watching what the waves look like in Hawaii.
For myself, I await the tsunami with some confusion and a little dread. The news (Weather Channel and CNN) has been reporting the tsunami will reach "San Francisco Bay" at 8:07, but San Francisco Bay is somewhat insulated from such large waves by virtue of the Golden Gate. The western part of San Francisco, however, like the rest of the California coastline, is pretty much open to the ocean. Being just a few miles from the beach, in theory I ought to be preparing to move to higher ground. However, the beach is a bit lower than most of the rest of the city, as you can see from a 1998 USGS elevation map of San Francisco. The question therefore is, how far will a tsunami travel inland when it has to confront an upward slope (or a series of them, as the paved streets have sculpted the landscape)?
Nobody knows. So I sit, watching cable news instead of sleeping (this is one of those times I'll violate my usual rule of staying the hell away from cable news), wondering if I'll hear the air-raid sirens in a few hours (we don't have dedicated tsunami alarms as far as I know).
Tsunamis are generated when large earthquakes send shock waves through ocean waters. Those shock waves travel at some 500 MPH in deep water, but are barely noticeable in mid-ocean. The trouble occurs when the shocked water approaches gradually shallower coastlines: waves slow down, allowing following waves to catch up with them. This produces new waves of greater height. When those larger, slower waves actually reach shore they may only be traveling in the tens of MPH, but the amount of water makes those slower waves push farther onto land than usual. Moreover, tsunamis are a series of those larger, slower waves.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has four levels of message it issues, ranging from information, the lowest, to warning, the highest. The warning issued to northern and central California and Oregon (and parts of Alaska) signifies "inundating wave possible." (A lower-level advisory is in place for the rest of California.)
The trouble is, the actual damage from a tsunami depends on how high the waves are when they hit shore. Tsunami height is not nearly as easy to forecast as tsunami propagation speed, and the best indicator, unfortunately, is its impact on other areas. As such, mainlanders will be watching what the waves look like in Hawaii.
For myself, I await the tsunami with some confusion and a little dread. The news (Weather Channel and CNN) has been reporting the tsunami will reach "San Francisco Bay" at 8:07, but San Francisco Bay is somewhat insulated from such large waves by virtue of the Golden Gate. The western part of San Francisco, however, like the rest of the California coastline, is pretty much open to the ocean. Being just a few miles from the beach, in theory I ought to be preparing to move to higher ground. However, the beach is a bit lower than most of the rest of the city, as you can see from a 1998 USGS elevation map of San Francisco. The question therefore is, how far will a tsunami travel inland when it has to confront an upward slope (or a series of them, as the paved streets have sculpted the landscape)?
Nobody knows. So I sit, watching cable news instead of sleeping (this is one of those times I'll violate my usual rule of staying the hell away from cable news), wondering if I'll hear the air-raid sirens in a few hours (we don't have dedicated tsunami alarms as far as I know).
Monday, March 7, 2011
"The Capitalist's Paradox," Umair Haque
Beancounters, listen up. To paraphrase Shakespeare, I come not to praise you, but to bury you. I don't care about your "strategy," "business model," "campaign," "product," or "deliverables" (sorry). All that stuff is focused on outputs. What matters to people, in contrast, are outcomes: did this bring a tiny slice of health, wealth, joy, inspiration, connection, intellect, imagination, organization, education, elevation into my life, that lasted, multiplied, and mattered to me — or was its final result merely to make me just a bit fatter, wearier, unhealthier, disconnected, dumber, duller?I'd like to believe Haque's blog entry is more than another hackneyed "the times, they are a-changing" bit of time-wasting. I think he's groping at the edges of something quite fundamental and true: American-style capitalism has dug the United States into a deep hole, and I'm not talking only about the fiscal one that China is financing. At the risk of reinforcing the country's worst Puritanical impulses (doing so tends to play into the hands of phony, moralizing religious and political leaders whose not so subtle message is that our problems are at heart due to falling from grace with their deity), it's hard for me not to suspect that our society's singleminded devotion to satisfying the purported desires of consumers, whlle denying the absolute requirement to educate those consumers about who they are and what they really need, has produced a population that is not just fatter and less thoughtful (let's avoid the loaded words "dumb" and "stupid," words which I acknowledge are favorites of mine in this blog), but overall less interested in making things, and itself, better.
If Haque and the many others who have been crying this same unpleasant headline into the town square are right, then in order to keep things from getting worse we're going to have to break with our habits. And how exactly are 300 million people supposed to turn on a dime, especially when a lot of them probably don't see a huge systemic problem? Beats me.
(Of course, there is the possibility that Haque and I are just trying to put an acceptable face on what is essentially the same message that the aforementioned phony, moralizing religious and political leaders have been so tiresomely bleating to us for so long. Messages like this seem to be no more than ineffectual hand-wringing because they don't offer a prescription, which is kind of important when you're calling for a change in direction.)
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